Doğu Asya’da ABD-Japonya - Kuzey Kore Üçgeninde Yaygınlaştırılmış Nükleer Caydırıcılık
Özet
Dünya tarihinde nükleer silahlardan acı çeken tek ulus olan Japonya’nın Hiroşima kentindeki Barış Anıtı’nda yer alan “bu hata tekrarlanmayacak” sözü, akıllarda nükleer silahların var olduğu bir dünyada “peki ama nasıl?” sorusunu uyandırmaktadır. Bu soruya stratejik düşüncenin cevabı, barış ve “barış olmayan barışın” sürdürülebilirliğinin anahtarı olan caydırıcılıktır. Tarih, devletlerin varoluşundan itibaren sahip olunan yeteneklerle rakibi eylem yapma niyetinden vazgeçirmeye ve mevcut statükonun devam ettirilmesine dayanan doğrudan ve yaygınlaştırılmış caydırıcılık ilişkilerine sahne olmuştur. Bu kitapta, caydırıcılık çalışmalarında dikkat çeken korunan aktörün rolünün görmezden gelinmesi sorunsallaştırılmakta ve bu durumun yaygınlaştırılmış caydırıcılığın başarısını
ve sürdürülebilirliğini analiz etmeyi zorlaştırdığı savunulmaktadır. Bu noktadan hareketle çalışma, korunan aktör olarak Japonya’nın ABD ile ittifakında artan rolünün ve güçlenen caydırıcılık duruşunun ittifakın inanılırlığını arttırırken aynı zamanda kendisini Kuzey Kore’nin doğrudan hedefi haline getirdiğini; dahası, ABD-Japonya-Kuzey Kore üçgenindeki yaygınlaştırılmış genel caydırıcılığın anlık
caydırıcılığa kaymasını tetiklediğini iddia etmektedir. Caydırıcılık çalışmalarının kayıtsız kaldığı korunan aktörün, incelediği üçgende başat role sahip olduğunu iddia etmesi ve bunu yeni bir teoriyle yapması bakımından bu çalışmanın özgün olduğuna inanıyor ve alana katkı sağlayacağını umuyorum.
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