Organic Orange and Lemon Production Forecasts of Adana Province Until 2025
Özet
This study by Ayca Nur Şahin Demirel explores organic orange and lemon production forecasts for Turkey’s Adana province through 2025, emphasizing the vital role of vitamin C-rich citrus fruits in supporting human immunity and preventing chronic health conditions. Leveraging historical agricultural data from 2002 to 2020 provided by the Turkish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, the research evaluates the expansion of Adana’s organic farming sector across Çukurova’s fertile lands. To project future growth, the author applies three statistical forecasting techniques in Minitab: Linear Trend Analysis (LTA), Quadratic Trend Analysis (QTA), and the Exponential Growth Model (EGM), evaluating their accuracy through MAPE, MAD, and MSD error metrics. The results indicate that the Exponential Growth Model yields the most realistic predictions, projecting continuous upward trends in organic farmland size, farmer participation, and total lemon and orange production between 2021 and 2025. While positive growth is anticipated, the author emphasizes that sustaining this momentum requires strategic interventions from public and private entities, including subsidized seed costs, modern equipment support, and improved market access for organic farmers. Ultimately, this academic piece offers actionable insights and policy recommendations for agricultural stakeholders aiming to strengthen organic farming infrastructure and regional supply chains in the Mediterranean.
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